Mayling Oey Gardnier, Peter Gardnier


As the worlds fourth largest populous nation, Indonesia is predicted to reach the
height of its so-called demographic dividend between 2020 and 2030 when the share
of population in working ages will be at its highest level and the potential for increased
output per capita and hence more productive investment will theoretically be at its
peak. But the ability to maximize this potential is far from certain and depends on a
variety of social and economic underpinnings, including key issues associated with
human resource capacity and gender equality that will determine how well Indonesia
is placed to meet the challenges involved. This contribution first reviews the history
of demographic and social transformations, including the dramatic shift from anti- to
pro-natalist policies that have occurred in Indonesia since independence. Set against
a deterministic trend of an age-sex specific population projection, we seek to provide
an assessment of these past trends in demographic and social dynamics in relationship
to the current state of preparedness, with a focus on social and gender-related issues.
Finally, we will outline several of the key challenges, particularly in the context of the
current socio-economic and political climate that will ultimately determine whether
Indonesia will move into a future real demographic dividend or only observe the world
through a window of opportunity.
Keywords: Demographic dividend, Population, Labour, Pro-natalist policies

Full Text:




AIPI [Indonesian Academy of Sciences]. 2011. International Conference on the

Population Ageing Explosion: Opportunities and Challenges. Bali, October


Bloom, D., Canning, D. and Sevilla, J. 2003. The Demographic Dividend: A New

Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. Santa

Monica, CA: RAND.

Coale, A.J. and Hoover, E. 1958. Population and Economic Development in LowIncome Countries. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press

Ehrlich, Paul R. 1968. The Population Bomb. New York: Ballantine Books.

Hull, Terence H., Hull, Valerie J. and Singarimbun, Masri. 1977. Indonesias Family

Planning Program: Success and Challenges. Washington, DC: Population

Reference Bureau.

Kinugasa, T. 2004. Life expectancy, Labour Force and Saving. PhD dissertation,

University of Hawaii at Manoa.

Nitisastro, Widjojo. 1970. Population Trends in Indonesia. Ithaca, NY: Cornell

University Press.

World Bank. 1993. The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy.

Washington, DC: World Bank.


Adioetomo, Sri Moertiningsih. 2004. Age Structural Transitions and its Implication.

The Case of Indonesia over a century, 1950-2050. Paper presented at a

seminar on Age Structural Transitions: Demographic Bonuses, But Emerging

Challenges for Population and Sustainable Development, Paris, CICRED

-26 February.

-------. 2005. Bonus Demografi: Menjelaskan hubungan antara pertumbuhan

penduduk dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pidato pada upacara pengukuhan

sebagai Guru Besar Tetap dalam bidang Ekonomi Kependudukan, Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia. [Demographic Bonus: Explaining the

Relation between Population Growth and Economic Growth. Inaugural lecture

as Professor in Population Economics, Faculty of Economics University of

Indonesia.] Jakarta, 30 April.

Bloom, al. 2007. Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the

Demographic Dividend. NBER Working Paper 13583. Cambridge, MA:

National Bureau of Economic Research.

Bloom, D.E. and Canning, D. 2001. Cumulative Causality, Economic Growth, and

the Demographic Transition. In: N. Birdsall, A.C. Kelley, and S.W. Sinding

(editors), Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and

Poverty in the Developing World. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 165-

Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. and Graham, B. 2003. Longevity and Life-cycle Savings.

Scandinavian Journal of Economics. Vol. 105, No. 3, pp. 319-338.

Bloom, D.E., and Williamson, J.G.. 1998. Demographic Transitions and Economic

Miracles in Emerging Asia. World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 12, No. 3,

pp. 419-456.

Carvalho, J. de and Wong, L., 1998. Demographic and Socioeconomic Implications

of Rapid Fertility Decline in Brazil: A Window of Opportunity. In: G. Martine,

M. Das Gupta and L. Chen (editors). Reproductive Change in India and Brazil.

Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 208-240.

Eastwood, Robert and Lipton, Michael. 2001. Demographic Transition and Poverty:

Effects via Economic Growth, Distribution and Conversion. In: N. Birdsall,

A.C. Kelley, and S.W. Sinding (editors), Population Matters: Demographic

Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World. Oxford:

Oxford University Press.

Frankenberg, Elizabeth and Tomas, Duncan. 2008. Health and Productivity Impacts

on Poverty for the case of Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa,

as a Part of Hewletts Research Programme on Population and Poverty. Duke

University, Durham, NC.

Hill, Hal and Thee Kian Wie. 2012. Indonesian Universities in Transition: Catching

up and Opening up. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Vol. 48, No. 2,

pp. 229-251.

Kelley, A.C. 1988. Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third

World. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 26, No. 4, pp. 11685-17728.

Kelley, A.C. and Schmidt, R.M. 1995. Aggregate Population and


Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change.

Demography, Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 543-555.

-------. 2001. Economic and Demographic Change: ASynthesis of Models, Findings,

and Perspectives. In: N. Birdsall, A.C. Kelley, and S.W. Sinding (editors),

Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in

the Developing World. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Mason, Andrew. No date. Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividends in

Developed and Developing Countries. Department of Economics, University

of Hawaii at Manoa and Population and Health Studies, East-West Center,


-------. 2002. Capitalizing on the Demographic Dividend. [unpublished].

-------. and Lee, R. 2004. Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing

Countries: Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend. [unpublished].

Oey-Gardiner, Mayling. 2011. Living Arrangements among Elderly Indonesians.

Paper presented at the Southeast Asian Countries Meeting and Active Ageing

Workshop on Designing Age Friendly Communities to Enhance Aging in

Place, Denpasar, 13-14 October.

Poole, Ian. 2007. Demographic Dividends: Determinants of Development or Merely

Windows of Opportunity?. Ageing Horizons, Vol. 7, pp. 28-35.

Sachs, Jeffrey, McArthur, John W., Schmidt-Traub, Guido, Kruk, Margaret, Bahadur,

Chandrika, Faye, Michael and McCord, Gordon. 2004. Ending Africas

Poverty Trap. UN Millennium Project. Columbia University and UN

Millennium Project.

Schmidt, R.M. and Kelley, A.C. 1996. Saving, Dependency and Development.

Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 365-386.

Sugiyarto, Guntur, Oey-Gardiner, Mayling and Triaswati, Ninasapti. 2006. Labor

Markets in Indonesia: Key Challenges and Policy Issues. In: Jesus Felipe and

Rana Hasan (editors), Labor Markets in Asia: Issues and Perspectives. New

York: Palgrave/ Macmillan.

Thakur, Vasundhra. 2012. The Demographic Dividend in India: Gift or Curse? A

State-level Analysis on Differing Age Structure and its Implications for Indias

Economic Growth Prospects. Working paper series Development Studies

Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science, No. 12-128.

Williamson, J.G., and Higgins, M. 2001. The Accumulation and Demography

Connection in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia. In: A. Mason

(editor),Population Change and Economic Development in Eastern and

South-eastern Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized. Stanford, CA:

Stanford University Press, pp. 123-154.

Reports and statistics

BPS. 1963. Population Census 1961 Republic of Indonesia. Jakarta: Biro Pusat Statistik.

-------. 2000-2012. Labor Force Situation in Indonesia. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

-------. 2012. Statistik Indonesia 2012.[Statistical Yearbook of Indonesia]. Jakarta:

Badan Pusat Statistik.

Preparing for the Challenges of Population Aging in Asia: Strengthening the Scientific

Basis of Policy Development. 2010. Report by the Chinese Academy of Social

Sciences, the Indian National Science Academy, the Indonesian Academy of

Sciences, the National Research Council of the US National Academies, and

the Science Council of Japan.

Population Reference Bureau. 2012. Population and Economic Development 2012

Data Sheet. Washington, DC.

Soetedjo M., and Clinton. J. 1972. Trends in Contraceptive Use: The Indonesian

Experience. Technical Report Series, Monograph No. 4 (September). Jakarta:

National Family Planning Coordinating Board.

United Nations. 2009. World Population Prospects, 2008 Revision. Department of

Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. ST/ESA/SER.A/287.


Ehrlich, Paul R. and Ehrlich, Anne H. 2009.The Population Bomb Revisited,

Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development, Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 6371.www.

Ministry of Educaton and Culture.

Kementrian Pendidikan Nasional.

World Bank. Country education indicators.

Copyright (c) 2017 Masyarakat Indonesia


  • There are currently no refbacks.